Since this year, the new energy vehicle industry has continued to pick up, and the power battery industry has begun to expand on a large scale.
On the evening of February 2, Ningde Times announced that it plans to invest a total of 29 billion yuan in the construction of three production bases in Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province, Yibin, Sichuan Province and Ningde, Fujian Province, which are expected to increase production capacity by 79GWh.Just over a month ago, on Dec. 31, 2020, Ningde Times announced a 39 billion yuan expansion plan.
Capacity expansion also means a new round of knockout competition opened, leading enterprises continue to improve the market share, low-end capacity is accelerated elimination.Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, told the Securities Daily reporter that "horse racing and land enclosure" can help enterprises to maintain competitive advantages to some extent, but the structural surplus of the industry has always existed. To avoid blind expansion of production, we must take technological innovation as the core competitiveness to win in the end.
"The so-called surplus is structural. In fact, high-end capacity is in short supply and low-end capacity is in short supply."Have the head power battery enterprise personage to tell "securities daily" reporter.
Wang Xianbin, a researcher at the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute, told Securities Daily that the battery industry has been suffering from low-end overcapacity and high-end overcapacity in recent years.With the expansion of the head enterprises, low-end production capacity and related enterprises will be gradually out.
In addition to Ningde Times, according to incomplete statistics by reporters from Securities Daily, more than 10 domestic and foreign power battery companies, such as LG, SKI, Ewei Lithium-Energy and AVIC Lithium-Power, are all speeding up their "race to the top".
Head enterprises to accelerate the "horse race to enclosure"
It is understood that Ningde Times has previously built five major production bases, including Ningde (Hudong/Huxi/Chaliwan/Fuding), Jiangsu Liyang, Sichuan Yibin, Qinghai Xining and Germany factory.With all the planned capacity of Ningde by the end of 2020, the total planned capacity of Ningde is nearly 400GWh, which is 8 times the capacity of 53GWh at the end of 2019.In addition, the total planned capacity of the joint venture plants between Ningde Times and major OEs is nearly 100GWh.
Zeng Yuqun, founder and chairman of Ningde Times, previously mentioned in his public speech that from 2021, the global lithium battery market demand will have a significant increase, but on the supply side, the current growth of the whole industry chain capacity supply is relatively slow, and the effective supply is insufficient.
This is also the main reason for the continuous expansion of power battery enterprises led by Ning De Times.Drived by Ningde Times, power battery industry chain enterprises are starting a new round of capacity expansion.On the evening of Feb. 2, BYD unveiled a capital increase plan for its controlling subsidiary, following the announcement of overseas investment plans by Changying Precision, Enjie Holdings and Putailai, among others.
On February 3, Yi Wei lithium energy also issued a notice that Sun Yi Wei Power Hong Kong plans to set up a $128 million Hui Zhou Yi Wei Power to expand the scale of power battery production.A few days ago, Jiangsu phase 4 project of AVIC lithium power and Changzhou Jintan District officially signed a contract, the project increased investment of 10 billion yuan level, planning to build an annual capacity of 25GWH.This also marks that the capacity of mass production, construction and new construction of AVIC Lithium exceeds 100GWh in 2021.According to the data of GGII, the cumulative installed power of AVIC lithium power from January to November last year was 2.94GWh, up 125.46% year on year, ranking only after Ningde Times and BYD.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to the domestic market, Ningde Times, Honeycomb, a subsidiary of Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd., and AVIC Lithium Electric Co., Ltd., have also started to build power battery factories in Europe.
"Head companies have started a tug of war of capacity expansion."Wang Xianbin told "Securities Daily" reporters, the domestic power battery industry chain has been very mature, in the short and medium term, after the expansion of production capacity will be part of the export and overseas factories, global expansion is also imperative.From the demand side, in addition to the new energy vehicle market, the power battery is also moving to the energy storage market and 5G base station market, the future market competition will be increasingly fierce, the top enterprises need more forward-looking investment and reserves.
Half capacity utilization?
However, to this round of expansion production carnival, there are also part of the industry holds different views.
An institutional investors to "securities journal" reporter pointed out that in this round of expansion wave is a lot of investment plans in the future in the layout of the three years or longer, for the company especially listed company, all the investment must be profit oriented, and actual situation of the project to promote the final is guided by the terminal's actual demand.
Take the head company Ningde Times as an example: according to its 2019 annual report data, the company's battery system annual capacity is 53GWh, the construction capacity is 22.2GWh, the output is 47.24GWh, the annual capacity utilization rate is 89.17%.
In the first half of 2020, the production capacity of Ningde power battery system is 28.70GWh, the production capacity under construction is 18.9GWh, and the production capacity is 15.08GWh, and the capacity utilization rate only reaches 52.50%.
The outbreak had a certain influence on the normal production, since the second half of last year, the output of power battery began to rise gradually, and blowout in the fourth quarter, but even so, according to China's auto power battery industry innovation alliance, zhongshang industry institute sorting data show that in 2020, our country power battery production accumulated 83.4 GWh, fell 2.3% year on year.
Everbright Securities analysis believes that by the end of 2020, Ningde Times power battery (non-joint venture capacity) is about 90GWh to 140GWh, and by the end of 2021, it is expected that the capacity will reach 150GWh to 210GWh.
In this regard, some industry analysts believe that the current Ningde era occupies half of the domestic power battery market, according to the predicted lower limit of production capacity, the actual production capacity utilization rate of Ningde era is about 50%.
It is worth mentioning that, just before the release of the production expansion plan, on the evening of February 1st, Ningde Times released the news that the restriction on sales would be lifted, and the company offered 122 million shares to Hillhouse Capital and other 9 specific objects.The shares, which represent 5.25 per cent of the company's total share capital, will be released from sale on February 4.According to rough calculation, the investors who participated in the private placement increase and the lifting of the ban in more than half a year, benefited from the rising share price of Ningde Times, and the floating profit reached about 120%.
Some market views believe that there is a certain pressure in the market under the massive lifting of the ban, and Ningde Times threw out the production expansion plan at this time, which objectively hedges the adverse impact of the news, and subjectively also hopes to give investors and the market a more positive signal.
Mo Ke, chief analyst of ZhenLi Research, told the Securities Daily reporter that NingDe Times' investment expansion plan will definitely follow the objective laws of the market in the actual implementation, rather than blindly aggressive investment.But at the same time, it said, once the head of the enterprise capacity is insufficient, other small and medium-sized enterprises will be more serious, and the current industry structural excess, insufficient capacity utilization has emerged.
Low-end capacity will be eliminated
On January 11, Qianjiang Motorbike announced that Zhejiang Qianjiang Lithium Technology Co., Ltd. (" Qianjiang Lithium "), a subsidiary of the company, recently received a notice from the People's Court of Wenling City, Zhejiang Province.Qianjiang Lithium Power filed for bankruptcy due to insolvency.Prior to this, including Watma, Huanyu Power, SOW Battery, Hubei Mengshi and other battery companies due to insolvency, creditors have filed for bankruptcy liquidation.
In fact, from the development of the whole power battery industry in recent years, the head of the enterprise scenery is infinite, but the tail of the enterprise has been reshuffling.
According to data from GGII, in 2020, the number of domestic power battery companies that have achieved installed capacity has decreased from more than 200 at the peak to less than 50, and the number of Top 10 companies that have installed capacity has reached 95%.
In this regard, Wang Xianbin told the Securities Daily reporter that the head battery enterprises occupy a monopoly position, and continue to expand production, regional layout, to meet the supply of best-selling products.On the supply side, high-end products require a lot of batteries.
A few years ago, under the stimulation of huge subsidies for new energy vehicles, many enterprises rushed to the layout of power battery enterprises.However, with the accelerated upgrading of production capacity and technology in the power battery industry, the industry concentration is getting higher and higher, and the enterprises with insufficient market competitiveness are in trouble.
Mo Ke told "Securities Daily" reporter, the current power battery market supply and excess capacity coexist, China's power battery overall capacity has reached 270GWh to 280GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not reached 50%, high-end quality capacity is in short supply, low-end product capacity orders are insufficient.
The industry believes that the comprehensive market load and other situation analysis, the current capacity and load is still a large gap.This means that for many companies, blind expansion is fraught with risks.
Lin Boqiang said to "Securities Daily" reporter, moderate scale expansion is necessary for the development of enterprises, but maintain the pursuit of advanced technology is the core competitiveness of enterprises to achieve healthy competition, sustainable development.
Mo Ke further said that the final landing of the investment plan still needs to be market-oriented, investment projects are not overnight, the market should avoid excessive speculation.
Guoxin Securities Research Report believes that with the industry competition intensified, dozens of battery enterprises quit, industry leading concentration further improved.With the increasingly clear expectation of subsidy refund and subsidy, enterprises at the end of the industry will accelerate the liquidation. At the same time, higher requirements are put forward for the second and third echelon companies whether they can timely layout new technology routes and new capacity. The leading enterprises have obvious comparative advantages.
Zhang Xiang, a member of the new energy and intelligent connected automobile industry expert think tank, told the Securities Daily reporter that Ningde Times has received a lot of orders, but its capacity is not enough, so it needs to expand production on a large scale.But the tail of the excess capacity of enterprises, now the battery industry is a high monopoly and high concentration of industry, there will be a fierce shuffle process.
Wang Xianbin also believes that with the exit of low-end production capacity, some enterprises will be out.For the second-tier battery companies, the future is either consolidation or acquisition.
